France24 – A provisional toll of 4,000 confirmed victims and up to “20,000 deaths” estimated: as of the 23rde day of demonstrations which have shaken the country since December 28 – and with one almost total Internet shutdown since January 8–, it is still impossible for the various observers to give an exact count of the number of victims of the repression by the Iranian government.
After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced the death of “several thousand” people, the Iranian authorities communicated more precisely on the subject on Sunday January 18: according to them, at least 5,000 people died during these demonstrations, as a declared an anonymous Iranian official source to the Reuters news agency. “The final count should not increase significantly”, also said this source, who described the demonstrators as “terrorists and armed rioters”.
Up to 20,000 deaths estimated
But despite the regime’s statements, the true number of deaths could however be significantly higher, with observer reports confirming the extent of the repression of demonstrators by the Iranian government.
Even before the Iranian authorities’ statements, estimates published in several international media gave figures up to four times higher. The American media CBS for example, reported on January 13 that between 12,000 and 20,000 people could have been killed in these protests, based on estimates by a group of activists based in Iran, which relied on medical reports retrieved from across the country.
The figure of 12,000 deaths was also published the same day by the London-based media outlet Iran International, taking up government and security sources high up in Iran. On January 18, the Sunday Times also published an estimated death toll of between 16,500 and 18,000 victims, based on data collected by Iranian sources in 24 hospitals and emergency departments in the country.
3,919 deaths verified as of January 18
Despite these different estimates, most international media and agencies, including France 24, relied mainly on data from two organizations that cover human rights in Iran: NGOs Iran Human Rights, based in Norway, and Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA), in the United States.
As of January 18, HRANA had, for example, counted 3,919 “confirmed deaths”, including 178 members of government forces, but also 8,949 deaths “under verification”. These figures, which are based on concrete information from families and medical sources in Iran, come from a process of verification and identification of victims carried out from sources on the ground.
Iran Human Rights counted as of January 14 3,428 dead (see graph below). As the organization noted, the vast majority of victims were killed during demonstrations organized between January 8 and 12, the period when repression was the most violent. If the Internet shutdown seriously hampered the counting of victims during these demonstrations, the two NGOs are gradually catching up and continue to count the people killed during these gatherings.
Online, however, some have been able to criticize the use without context of these reports, which to date are lower than those of the Iranian authorities. This undervaluation, linked to their verification methodology, is clearly specified by the two NGOs: “It should be noted that the total figure corresponds to an absolute minimum”, indicated Iran Human Rights in its last report on January 14, also relying on data from only 15 provinces out of the 31 that make up Iran.
Jennifer Connet, HRANA’s legal advisor, also explains how their count works:
“The figures we publish should be considered minimums and not estimates of the total extent of damage. These figures only reflect cases that have been independently verified from primary sources, which is a time-consuming process, particularly given the number of cases to be verified in this situation and the Internet shutdown that compromises the flow of information.
We confirm that each of the confirmed […] deaths was individually identified and verified from primary sources in Iran. ‘[…] Cases under investigation’ refers to cases that are being independently verified. Our internal audit team treats these documents provided by citizens with the greatest care.”
Internet outages, difficulties in accessing the land: figures still partial
In his latest report, dated January 18, HRANA also specified that 8,949 other deaths were currently being verified, which should quickly increase the number of victims.
In addition to being only provisional, this assessment also turns out to be incomplete, given the difficulty of accessing information on the ground, linked to the cutoff Internet by the regime. For 12 days, the authorities have been preventing access to fixed and mobile Internet in a large part of the country, effectively preventing the use of messaging services or calls via the Internet. Jennifer Connet elaborates:
In response to the lack of information, HRANA launched a public appeal via Telegram, urging citizens, eyewitnesses and people with access to reliable documents, images and videos to participate in the independent documentation of the protests.
The Internet shutdown poses serious obstacles to documentation and verification. HRA remains deeply concerned by this internet shutdown, which not only violates Iranians’ right to access information, but also cuts off more than 90 million people from the outside world and facilitates impunity for excessive and continued use force against demonstrators, by making it possible to conceal violence and repression.
“We saw a notable slowdown in reporting for several days, which is consistent with the severity of the communication restrictions”, she continues. “But even during this time, we were able to maintain limited contact through safer and less sophisticated means of communication, including landline calls with our established network.”