KTLA – Iran war could plunge more than 30 million worldwide into poverty, UN warns
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could push more than 30 million people around the world into poverty, according to new projections by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The findings, released Tuesday via a 27-page brief, found that as many as 32.5 million people may fall into poverty due to a shock of energy affordability and availability, increases in food prices and downturns in gross domestic product.
The UNDP noted that countries in the Gulf region, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and small island developing states are “uniquely” vulnerable to these impacts. Iran alone is projected to have lost a year and a half in human development progress over the first month of the conflict, which began when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Feb. 28.
“War is development in reverse. Conflict can undo in weeks what countries have built over years,” said UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo in a release. “This new analysis shows that the shock of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is not limited to the countries directly affected, but falls disproportionately on those with the least fiscal room to absorb higher energy and food prices.
“For these countries, the crisis forces impossible trade-offs between stabilizing prices today and funding health, education, and jobs tomorrow. That is unacceptable, and it is preventable. Early policy action matters.”
As of last Tuesday, the day before a two-week ceasefire went into effect, 1,701 civilians in Iran had been killed since the war began, including at least 254 children, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The next day, HRANA reported at least 20 attacks occurred in Iran over the prior 24 hours, resulting in zero casualties.
As for how impacted countries can mitigate the impacts of the conflict, the UNDP recommends as much as $6 billion in targeted and temporary cash transfers to poor and vulnerable households, along with temporary and targeted subsidies or vouchers for “consumption blocks” of electricity or cooking gas.
The UNDP does not, however, recommend blanket energy subsidies, as those “disproportionately” favor wealthier households and are “financially unsustainable over time.”
Over the weekend, U.S. and Iranian officials left Pakistan without reaching an agreement to curb Tehran’s nuclear program and end hostilities.
Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation, said Monday that negotiators made “some progress” but were ultimately unable to strike a deal.
“Whether we have further conversations, whether we ultimately get to a deal, I really think the ball is in the Iranian court because we put a lot on the table,” Vance told host Bret Baier on Fox News’s “Special Report.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, said Sunday his side “engaged in good faith” to end the war.
“But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” he wrote on social platform X, referring to the U.S. “Zero lessons earned. Good will begets goodwill. Enmity begets enmity.”